Here is a timetable for the coming years, assuming modest slowdown in economic growth and gradual appreciation of the RMB:

2005: China world's fourth largest economy by nominal GDP surpassing Britain and France.
2006: China living standards (GDP by purchasing power parity, PPP, per person) the same as Ukraine
2007: China becomes the world's largest exporter, surpassing Germany, living standards (by PPP) the same as Turkey and Iran.
2008: China world's third largest economy , surpassing Germany, living standards higher than in Brazil.
2009: China living standards surpassing Thailand.
2010: China world's second biggest economy by nominal GDP, surpassing Japan. China becomes the biggest economy in the world by PPP, surpassing USA.

If trends continue, China will become the biggest trading nation (total imports and exports) by 2013-2014, and become the world's biggest economy by nominal GDP by 2021 (2020 if we include Macao, HK and Taiwan). By then, living standards will be equal to today's South Korea. 04032007


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